爱上超模
换个方式，继续复盘——投资风向标直播版来了！_我的网站
一 | Dr. Alexander Azadgan, professor of business studies and international political economy in Southern California, explains why President Putin's trip to Tehran was so significant and reflects on skyrocketing energy prices as well as the future of the Iran nuclear deal.,Sputnik: How effective was President Putin's visit to Tehran, considering the geopolitical challenges countries face at present?,Dr Alexander Azadgan: Very, very effective. We are witnesses of Gazprom and NIOC, which stands for National Iranian Oil Company, signing a $40 billion contract for Russia to develop six Iranian oilfields in the Persian Gulf. Notably, the Pars field, which is shared between Iran and Qatar. The Qataris call it the North field, Iranians call it the South Pars field. It's one of the biggest underwater natural gas reserves in the world, if not the biggest itself. Qatar and Iran have been sharing it. Iran, of course, has not had the technology to extract as much as the Qataris. Around one-fifth of it is in the Iranian territorial water, four-fifths in Qatari water.,RussiaPutin Praises Record-High Trade Turnover With Iran at Meeting With Raisi19 July, 14:12 GMT,There will also be a product swap exchange between Iran and Russia, completion of LNG projects, liquid natural gas plus construction of gas export pipelines and other scientific and technological cooperation. This oil and gas deal is reportedly the largest in Iran's history, $40 billion. Before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was reneged, French company Total was interested in excavating and helping the Iranians. Of course, they reneged, like so many other things, and Russia has stepped in right now. It's a win-win for both countries, but it has its own complications as well.,Sputnik: Do you agree with President Putin's assertion that Western policies over "the previous decade" were to blame for soaring energy prices?,Dr Azadgan: Iranian relations right now are better than with the previous administration, the Rouhani administration. The conservatives are in charge right now. President Raisi visited Moscow not too long ago. And the conservatives have had the tendency in the past several years to lean more towards Russia, especially with IRGC and all the advancements that that body of military is making. We cannot leave out Iranian internal politics when it comes to the overall Russo-Iranian relations.,RussiaPutin: Western Policies From Last 10 Years to Blame for Soaring Energy Prices20 July, 03:29 GMT,Keep in mind that US invasion and occupation of Iraq, Iraq being one of the top five exporters of oil at that time and one of the top five exporters of oil to United States now, was a catastrophic mistake in a sense that the neocons at that time were delusional to think that by causing havoc in the region, especially obviously toward Iraq, there will be less export of Iraq's oil to the Far East, the growing economies of China, in particular, followed by South Korea and Japan. All that is part of what we are seeing today when it comes to inflation.,Now the supply and demand has not changed in the world - the reason the price of oil has increased is because of the perception of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia to continue. There is no logical reason for this change. I think, unfortunately, with Washington really triggering Russia over NATO's expansion during the past many years, most people think this conflict just started. If you want to go back, it depends on what your frame of reference is. You can go back to 2004 in Ukraine, followed by the Orange Revolution. There's been a lot of political intrusion by Washington and Brussels. And unfortunately, we find ourselves in the current situation, which could affect the entire global economy in a very hyper-inflationary hell, really. This is what economists are most scared of - a hyper inflationary situation.,Sputnik: How much has Europe's decision to turn its back on traditional energy sources added to the present crisis?,Dr Azadgan: With the whole environmental movement, which obviously is of an urgency, we need to realize that green energy is not going to provide the energy demand of 8 billion people. It's just simply not possible. I think we need to be more realistic that obviously oil is going to be with us for a long time. Natural gas is the transitioning method of energy. We will have that for many years, it is cleaner, but both of them are going to be along for a long time. And to start making the change now in such a naive, extreme, erratic way is going to have major economic backlashes.,Not to mention the political turmoil and the geopolitical uncertainty in that part of the world. We need more realism from our policymakers - of course, with Democrats in the White House and Chancellor [Olaf] Scholz in Germany, unfortunately, we are being a little bit too naive and unrealistic when it comes to planning energy resources for the next 60 years.,Sputnik: Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow and Tehran will continue to expand the use of national currencies in foreign trade settlements. How will this affect the dollar's dominance?,Dr Azadgan: Before we even talk about the Iranian rial and the Russian ruble exchange, this is a major breakaway from the past, I would say, 80 years where petroleum was only supposed to be traded in the US dollar given the US dollar’s tremendous power. And unfortunately, we've seen the weaponization of the dollar in the past few decades - this is the problem. Yes, this is a clear and present danger to United States national interests.,WorldTehran Exchange Launches Trading in Iranian Rial/Ruble19 July, 10:06 GMT,Several years ago, China and Russia exchanged an oil contract where the Russians provided oil and natural gas to China and the whole thing was around $400 billion when it was exchanged in rubles and yuan. At that time, US policymakers took notice. And now we are in this situation where because of the US' rash reaction into pushing for a war, believe it or not, between Russia and Ukraine, more countries as a result of that are leaning toward the East. And by east, I mean the shifting of power to China and Russia.,China has tremendous manufacturing capabilities. Russia - the same in addition to tremendous amounts of all sorts of natural resources and rare minerals. In the decades to come, we will see the weakening of the dollar, which would result in the US national debt, which is $28 trillion, more or less. That's going to be a problem that will contribute into inflation. And we saw how Mr Biden had to go to Saudi Arabia and lobby Mohammed bin Salman to open up the coffers of oil so that prices go down. That would have been never possible in the past.,Crude Prices Skyrocket After Biden Returns From Saudi Arabia Without Oil Deal18 July, 15:17 GMT,The US president had to go to Saudi Arabia and beg for oil. Usually that was done through a phone call. And if the answer was ‘No’ by the Saudis, guess what? That would have been a coup in the palace. So, unfortunately, we have put ourselves in a situation where we have lost our leverage or are in the way of losing more leverage.,Sputnik: To what extent will the switch to national currencies help eliminate the effect of Western-imposed sanctions?,Dr Azadgan: That's where we're going: from this point on, because of all the miscalculations and the weaponization of the dollar, countries are eventually going to do that. They're not going to peg their currency against the dollar, which has been the case. Don't forget, the Iranian economy has been in shambles during the past 15 years. When it comes to this $40 billion oil contract, the Iranian currency lost 9/10th of its value since 2013, when President Ahmadinejad left office - they went from 3500 tomans to over 30,000 tomans [1 toman = 10,000 rials].,RussiaKremlin: Russia and Iran May Ditch Dollar When Measuring Bilateral Trade Volume18 July, 09:12 GMT,This has been a disaster. Because they decided to peg their currency even more toward a US dollar. And this is an Iranian liberal policy leaning more toward the West, whereas the Iranian conservatives have a tendency to lean more toward the growing economies of the east. There's demand for the Iranian currency that would hopefully have an impact on the Iranian rial currency to stop hemorrhaging. It's at a point where we could possibly face a major economic collapse in Iran, which would even make the prices of oil higher. I think Russia is stepping in at the right time, in the right place, especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and we'll see where that will go.,Sputnik: How important is Russia's and Iran's cooperation over the JCPOA, especially amid increased US attention towards a diplomatic resolution? How strong is Iran now in this regard?,Dr Azadgan: Washington has no one to blame but the previous administration. In 2018, President [Donald] Trump reneged from the P5+1 [the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (China, France, Russia, the UK and the US) plus Germany]. Iran was single-handedly negotiating with six superpowers, with one stroke of the pen President Trump got us out of that, and Iranians have lost all hopes in US in terms of their liberal persuasion within the Iranian political power structure. That's why we had Mr. Raisi coming in, the Conservatives coming in, and President Putin's visit to Iran, many visits to Iran during the liberal administration of President Rouhani, in my estimation, was an economic, political, geopolitical and military persuasion of Iranians to lean more towards the East.,Had the JCPOA been successful under the Rouhani administration, the country would have leaned westward for decades to come. Those policies failed, and as a result, we have conservatives in the Iranian executive branch, and there's a shift in power in that country. The JCPOA, I'm afraid, won't be going anywhere. It's just for keeping up appearances. Having said that, let us not forget that at the very beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Washington was very concerned to get reassurances from Russia that there is no nuclear non-proliferation going on by the Iranians.,Biden, Lapid Sign Joint Declaration Pledging to 'Never Allow Iran to Acquire Nuclear Weapon'14 July, 11:15 GMT,That's their number one concern in the Middle East right now because of the terrible relationship between Iran and Israel. But the fact that this topic came up in the first place shows how much Washington is worried, the Biden administration is worried that Iranians could be very close to having weapon-grade bomb, even though they clearly have denied it, for decades to come they claim they just want to enrich uranium and they want peaceful use of the technology. But Washington is not buying that.,Sputnik: What could Russia’s role be in securing the JCPOA?,Dr Azadgan: It's a very difficult situation. On the one hand, President Biden is desperate. His poll numbers are so low in this country because of inflation, because of the high price of oil. So if somehow the US and Iran decide, especially the US decides to bring Iran's oil production online - as you know, Iran is capable of exporting around 2,5 to 3 million barrels per day; under US sanctions it's not even 500,000. And the rest of it, let's just say they use creative methods of exporting the oil. If that supply comes online, the price of oil will come down. But I don't think Biden wants to negotiate at all with the Iranians, and the Iranians don't trust them. I think the Iranians really negotiated in good faith. If you ask me very naively that liberal Rouhani administration. And look at what they got for it, in 2018, just with a push of a pen, the whole thing was reneged. There's really not much to salvage out of JCPOA because I don't see any policy changes from the Biden administration at all.,West in Hurry to Conclude JCPOA Deal Amid Ukraine Crisis, Iranian Negotiator Says4 July, 13:52 GMT,They see Iran right now in the grips of conservatives. The conservatives are hawks just like any other nation. They negotiate more realistically, shall we say. And Iran is at a point where they have enriched uranium up to 60 percent. And militarily, they are very powerful. I think that for the time being, they have the upper hand, minus their economy, which is in shambles. But in other areas, they have the upper hand. It really depends on what kind of signals we get from the Biden administration and knowing how, unfortunately, the Israeli lobby plays such a crucial role in US foreign policy in the Middle East, we have also to keep in mind how willing Israel will be in back-channel communications possibly taking place. We do know, however, that under the Rouhani administration, this is a matter of fact, there were very covert back-channel conversations between Iran and Israel, and that was not to the liking of the IRGC and the conservatives. So it's very, very convoluted.,There's a massive deficit of trust between the US and Iran. And just because Russia is in a difficult position right now, I don't see Iranians turning their back toward the Russians and trust Washington and be disappointed again. The Iranians really have no one to trust, if you ask me. They're petrified of being of any superpower’s pawn. This is very important. There is no good history between some of Iran's new allies now. I think it's a battle of persuading the Iranian public on the policies that the Iranian government is suggesting. There's a lot of persuasion that needs to be done because they’re looking at decades to come. Literally the Russo-Iranian relations, which go further, they're looking at a change in policy for decades to come. I think Washington is very much petrified of that.,Sputnik: What about an agreement on grain exports? Can we expect a breakthrough in this, through the joint efforts of Russia and Turkey?,Dr Azadgan: We have to. We could be at the threshold of a famine in the world. Don't forget that the biggest importers of Russia's grain are some of the poorest countries in the world. The top five are Egypt at $3.2 billion; Turkey, since they are part of this negotiation in Tehran, at $1.7 billion a year, buying Russian wheat; Nigeria, one of the poorest countries in the world, but one of the richest in terms of natural resources, they import $566 million; Bangladesh, practically an economic disastrous country.,I'm afraid they will be next after Sri Lanka, they aim for $409 billion, followed by another very poor but powerful country, Pakistan, which imports close to $400 billion a year of Russian wheat. And then Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey are the fastest growing export markets for Russia. So it's extremely, extremely important because you're talking about the food supply chain security. The top five exporters of wheat in the world are first and foremost Russia, followed by the US, Australia, Canada and Ukraine at the fifth place. And after Ukraine it is France, Argentina and Germany. And the fastest export market for Ukraine is Pakistan, Lebanon and Vietnam.,Istanbul Grain DealErdogan Hopes to See Implementation of UN Plan on ‘Grain Issue’ in Coming Days20 July, 12:09 GMT,So Russia and Ukraine are finding themselves in a difficult competitive position for the Pakistani market. And everyone knows how Lebanon is on the verge of economic and social and political collapse. The only one that is somehow unscathed is Vietnam. So they just have to find a way to negotiate the export exit of Ukrainian wheat through the Black Sea, through the Turkish Strait and into the Middle Eastern and African markets, they are very much at risk.。 各位读者朋友，大家好，我是张博。
二 | 今年1月份《投资风向标》专栏虽然名义上停更了，但实际上停更后，我一直在以公开图文+音频的形式继续更新，在每个交易日的前一晚继续跟大家一起复盘大盘的涨跌起伏，拆解过热点板块的底层逻辑。 感谢每一位认真读过、听过、留言问过问题的朋友。
三 | 你们的持续关注，是这档内容能坚持到今天最大的动力。 不过今天是一个“转折点”的通知——从下周起，《投资风向标》的日常图文/音频专栏将正式停更。 但别误会，“风向标”没有消失，而是要做一次彻底的升级调整。
四 | 为什么要调整？ 股市的机会往往转瞬即逝，而文章/音频的“单向输出”有着天然的滞后性。
五 | 某个热点盘中突然爆发，背后的驱动逻辑我只能在当天晚上的文章里才能完整写出来，而最佳的观察窗口可能已经过去了。 很多朋友希望我能讲讲“怎么看量价背离”“怎么识别主力试盘”，但这些技术分析的方法，用文字和截图讲起来非常吃力，也不够直观。 所以，与其继续做“事后复盘”的专栏，不如换一种更直接、更实时、更有深度的形式——直播。
六 | 《投资风向标》直播版·正式上线 从下周二（5月19日）开始，《投资风向标》将以每周两场闭门直播的全新面貌与大家见面。 直播安排 时间：每周二、周四 晚18:00（每场约45-60分钟） 形式：视频直播 + 实时互动答疑 + 可回放 观看方式：报名后，加入专属社群，在群里以腾讯会议的形式进行 每场直播讲什么？ 我把以前专栏里“只能写给你看”的内容，变成“讲给你听、陪你聊”的三个核心模块： 盘面解构：当日指数、成交量、资金流向、主力信号的深度复盘——比文章更立体，用图表和数据实时演示。 主线挖掘：聚焦2-3个热点板块，拆解其驱动逻辑和产业链传导路径，每场会从不同维度筛选出3家值得跟踪的重点公司。 方法赋能：这是我最想强化的一块。在行情平淡或遇到典型案例时，我会穿插讲解技术分析工具（量价、均线、MACD等）、选股框架、仓位管理及风控原则——不只告诉你“今天怎么看”，更教你“以后怎么自己看”。
七 | 为什么值得你来观看？ 实时互动：你的问题，可以当场提、当场答，不再隔夜。
八 | 深度加码：用屏幕共享、K线标注、划线分析，把过去文字讲不清楚的技术细节，一次性讲透。
九 | 社群陪伴：报名用户可以加入专属微信群，可以在群里与我互动交流，遇到突发消息，我也会在社群内发布快评文字或语音。 专栏回顾：我最近整理了近一年专栏里提到的公司的涨幅情况，可在《最近1年投资风向标专栏的回顾》文章中查看详情 直播怎么收费？ 采用月度订阅的形式，价格198元/月，每周交付2场，每月至少8场。 同时给订阅过《投资风向标》专栏的老朋友提供了专属优惠：首月报名仅需98元/月 （约5折） 想要报名的朋友，微信搜索“活动”小程序，即可看到《投资风向标》直播版的报名入口，当然也可以直接联系虎子哥报名 邀你免费参与一场《投资风向标》闭门直播 我准备在明天（本周五）晚上18点，进行一场《投资风向标》闭门直播的试播，感兴趣的朋友可以来免费观看。直播将会在听博说社群里进行，没在群里的朋友请联系虎子哥进群： 最后说点题外话 做投资研究20年了，从一级市场到私募基金，再到今天在妙投与大家以文字和声音相伴，我一直相信：投资能力的提升，从来不是靠“听代码”得来的，而是靠反复复盘、建立框架、沉淀纪律。 《投资风向标》的这一次转型，本质上就是希望从“我讲给你听”变成“我陪你练、陪你聊、陪你复盘”。文章会停，但交流不会停，反而会更加紧密。 如果你愿意继续一起走，我们换个方式，继续聊行情、讲方法、挖机会。 如果你暂时还不太适应直播的形式，也没关系。
十 | 感谢你过去的每一次阅读、每一次点赞、每一次转发。山水一程，江湖再会。 —— 张博 2026年5月14日。
Current article:http://mh3fkt.yaoyaotoutuanmieshaideizun.buzz/vdios8/20260826/5324.html
Published on:12:12:04